The International Monetary Fund raises its growth forecast for Mexico by 1.3 percentage points with respect to its projection in April 2021 and places it at 6.3%.

This figure is slightly lower than the Mexican government forecast estimated at 6.5% but is above the 5% predicted by a group of 31 economists consulted by Citibanamex.

Already in April there were signs of recovery in exports and growth in domestic demand, that is, of consumption and services.

This situation is achieved in part by the indirect benefit that enters the country from the stimuli and aid that the United States grants to its companies and population.

Another factor, such as the advance of the national vaccination process, supported the growth and acceleration of demand.

Of interest: Most promising investment sectors in 2021

In the update carried out, IMF experts warned that the general debt of world governments will continue to fluctuate around 100% of global GDP, even in 2022.

In the Mexican case, they estimated that the debt would be equivalent to 59.9% of GDP, a forecast lower by half a percentage point than that indicated in April 2021.

Said debt includes all the obligations of public institutions including Petróleos Mexicanos and the Federal Electricity Commission, social security funds and debts at three levels of government: federal, state and local.

The upward corrections in the Mexican GDP are linked to the expected performance of the United States, which is estimated at 7% for 2021 and 4.9% for 2022, forecasts that were 0.6% and 1.4% higher than the April 2021 forecasts, respectively. .

The IMF estimates that economies such as Mexico, Brazil, Hungary, Russia and Turkey have already begun to normalize their monetary policy to counter upward pressures.

Check here: Mexico great winner of the T-Mec in the automotive sector, during 2020

What is common is the challenge faced by central banks in both types of economies with respect to inflation that has been driven by pent-up demand and supply chain bottlenecks.

Emerging economies face a major challenge that includes rising food prices and currency depreciations, which will keep prices high throughout 2022.

If these pressures persist, the central banks of emerging countries will have to take measures with what this implies.

Meanwhile, the developed economies are facing a well-anchored inflationary expectation and will have to be attentive to the rebound in the sectors that were most affected during the pandemic.

In Solili you can consult the Industrial Real Estate Report 2Q 2021

Original note