The Mexican economy will achieve growth of 3.4% this year, according to estimates by the economic analysis team of the rating agency Fitch, a forecast that is very far from the 1.5% that they themselves estimated at the beginning of the year.

This performance reflects the effect of the investment and robust consumption that have prevailed over the course of the year. Both factors have been underpinned by the displacement of the slowdown in the United States, which contributed to maintaining remittance shipments, export demand and better investor sentiment.

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The agency's projection is at the ceiling of the forecasts that the Mexican government maintained as the basis of its budget.

In their World Economic Outlook, which Fitch updates every three months, they anticipate that for next year, Mexico will achieve growth of 2.4%, an expectation that was also revised upward from the 1.8% predicted in September by themselves. .

From his perspective, the economy will continue to benefit from US exports, the effect of the relocation of investments to Mexico, the so-called nearshoring, as well as the boost that the fiscal stimulus scheduled for 2024 will give to the economy, particularly before the elections. presidential elections next year.

In the chapter for Mexico they admit that the flow of remittances will tend to slow down as the United States market cools, as a result of the effect of the restrictive policy. And since these resources have supported consumption, this segment, which has been an engine of growth for Mexico, could be impacted.

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Between January and October of this year, receiving households have captured an accumulated flow of remittances of US$52,888 million, a million dollar transfer that exceeded the flow observed in the same period last year by 9.4%.

Consumption contributes 70% of the GDP, but only 5.4 million families in the Aztec country receive remittances and we must add the impact generated by inflation and the strength of the exchange rate on the return on the dollars received.

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Original note