After the advance of the Russian army on the Ukrainian territory, the global supply chains would have a new challenge to face if the conditions of the war were raised.

On the one hand, Nicolás Portenza, president of Eternity Group México, a freight forwarder firm of Chinese origin, considered that in Mexico it would be necessary to project a continuity of congested traffic, generating higher costs and delivery times.

The manager explained that not only will commercial operations with Ukraine be interrupted until further notice, but also that in Turkey, a frequent origin for Mexican air-maritime imports will add greater pressure to the current congestion, by becoming a natural channel for receiving cargo originally destined for Ukraine.

Additionally, it is likely that the general commercial conditions of transportation from - to Russia will change, to a 100% prepaid modality”, he said.

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Likewise, he considered that airline security regulations will become stricter on cargo handling, reinforcing documentary controls and restrictions on certain types of merchandise, reducing the general availability of space on aircraft.

“The price of certain commodities will be affected upwards, increasing the costs of products and services, and the massive blockade of the European Union against Russia would complicate the financing of the supply chain on its industries directly, which could have consequences immediate in other markets”, affirmed Portenza.

On the other hand, Bertha Martínez Cisneros, coordinator of the Bachelor's Degree in International Logistics at CETYS Universidad Campus Mexicali, considered that the possibilities range from an extreme scenario, a military conflict that would have disastrous effects on supply chains, to severe economic sanctions that would create volatility and would affect global production capacity and critical logistics routes.

Even a stagnant position, he reflected, would lead to greater uncertainty in supply chains, especially in key industries such as high-tech electronics, semiconductors, energy, rare-earth minerals and other materials.

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According to Gartner and other international consulting firms, 6 problems that companies will face in their supply chains can be identified, if the escalations in Ukraine continue, among them: shortages of key raw materials, increases in material costs, impacts in production capacity and greater volatility in demand.

Other additional problems would be the restrictions of capacity and logistical routes and cybersecurity violations.

In addition, important logistics routes such as the Black Sea route and rail and road from Europe to Asia and vice versa will be affected, causing delays and interruptions. A spillover to Chinese ports and other key transport nodes is also expected.

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Original note